Scenario planning: How communities anticipate the challenges of recovery

On 2–3 October, the Polaris Programme launched a series of scenario planning workshops for its partner communities under the ‘Local-led Recovery’ sphere.


The workshop brought together representatives of the Novyi Buh community (Mykolaiv region), Khmelivka community (Sumy region), Konotop community (Sumy region), and Dymer community (Kyiv region). A further nine partner communities in the ‘Locally-led Recovery’ sphere will develop their scenario plans during the next two sessions to be held in Dnipro at the end of October.

‘Scenario planning helps communities not only to envisage possible future pathways but also to prepare for them. It is a tool that allows participants to organise their thinking, build a shared understanding, and gain a clearer grasp of the present situation, so that they can take well-informed recovery decisions,’ emphasised Sinne Bergby, an international expert with the Polaris Programme.

The data collected and analysed in earlier stages of the ‘Local Recovery’ component provided the foundation for participants’ work during the scenario planning session. Together with experts, communities identified key trends, built scenario models and outlined strategic directions for recovery and sustainable development of their territories.

‘The workshop allowed us to take a systemic view of our community’s future, analyse the data collected and develop scenarios that reflect real facts and the needs of residents. This is an important step to ensure that our planning is data-driven,’ noted Volodymyr Pidkurhannyi, Head of the Dymer community, Kyiv region.

The scenarios developed by communities will later be discussed with residents during Strategic Sessions, which will form the basis for future Development Strategies and Comprehensive Spatial Development Plans.

06.10.2025 - 10:00 | Views: 510

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